Seems like a lot of people like to make predictions this time of year. I tend not to because I’m not that good at it. But I think I have some ideas so I’m going to try.
More states allow CS to count for graduation. The momentum is there. CS Ed Week is helping to bring attention. The bad news is that allowing it to count doesn’t automatically translate to more schools offering it.
Python continues to grow in popularity. Ok that is probably an easy one. The trend has been that way for a while. It’s not going to change the AP CS A language yet though. Will it be the big language for AP CS Principles? Maybe.
AP CS Principles gets real for a lot more people. It is now an official course starting in 2016. The way things work is that a school that wants to offer it that year needs to get started this year so it can be in the program of studies next winter. This means a lot of demand for professional development as well as a lot of soul searching for teachers. Add AP CS Principles or replace AP CS A with it? I think most schools with APCS A will ignore AP CS Principles but a many schools that don’t offer AP CS A will add AP CS Principles. What will your school do?
Debate on the right languages for AP CS Principles will get heated. A lot of people have been using Snap! while others have been using Python and that is just the start of the options. What will most people choose? I don’t think anyone knows but I have to wonder how many teachers are ready to learn a new language for the new course. I see a Tower of Babel selection in the early years of the exam.
Chromebooks for 1 to 1 computing become a big problem for CS education. This is the year of the Chromebook as more and more schools see it as the silver bullet computing device. They love the price and the tech support people love that students can’t do serious things that make their life harder. It’s not a great platform for teaching computer science though. None of the currently popular IDEs run on it. Chromebooks may be the single greatest threat to expanding CS education we face in 2015. of course in 2016 the next big thing becomes popular and I have no idea what that will be.
What do you think? All wrong? Some right? What do you see happening? I almost can’t wait until next January to see how I did.
Note: Mike Zamansky responds to my predictions with his own post at CS Ed Predictions 2015. Laura Blankenship replies on her blog as well. Garth Flint responds in the comments here. Don't miss the replies. Conversation is helpful to everyone.
1. Need more states and schools offering CS so this can happen.
ReplyDelete2. Python vs Java. After teaching both I can see the rational for both. Python for the normal, rational teachers. Java for the absolute psycho cases that have MAs in CS and figure all their students should want the same. (This is a totally unbiased opinion.)
3 and 4. I do not get the AP thing at all. Many colleges do not accept AP credits. We have gone to offering dual-credit courses. Cheaper, more flexible, and gives direct college credit.
5. I completely agree on Chromebooks. Great for schools with a limited IT staff where all they want the kids to do it browse the internet and use the limited Google Apps. For many schools this is all they want, but many schools have a very limited vision of technology and where the kids have to be in order to satisfy the needs of the future. Paying $200 for hardware to run a free browser seems a bit odd. (Again, no bias here.)
Here is what I hope to see happening.
1. BYOD becomes the primary computer in the schools. Kids learning to use their own devices so they can carry the knowledge out of high school.
2. A computer course of some kind becomes required for graduation. More kids would need this than that Geometry course.
3. 1 to 1 becomes not a policy but an assumption.
4. School IT departments support what is needed, not what is convenient.
Here is what I see happening.
1. CS continues in limbo because schools do not want to spend the time to revamp a 100 year old curriculum.
2. Continued whining about budget limitations while school superintendents continue to make a six figure income. (This is a local issue in the public schools in my area.)
3. Teachers with twenty years experience still consider laptops in the classroom an intrusion. Beginning teachers still have no idea on how to manage a tech classroom because their university prep is twenty year behind the times.
4. I continue to be a pessimist but fight to be an optimist. I see CS as a bottom up revolution in education. The kids and the teachers have to show the schools what is needed to meet the future.
Hey Alfred - nice list.
ReplyDeleteI thought about commenting here but it started to get a little long.
I put up my comment on my site: http://cestlaz.github.io/2015/01/04/predictions-2015.html#.VKmjUa3d-Ak